2026 RACE BRIEFING
Toronto Waterfront Marathon
−1:57 versus your goal from a single 08:00 five-year ERA5 calendar-window mean snapshot.
Get ready for Toronto's October waterfront marathon with local climate context and a weather-aware race plan.
Explore your pace planZoom to drag the route. Keyboard: + / −, arrows, Home to reset.
2024 course reference. Check the organiser’s current course.
Race-day weather
Good preparation starts before the forecast.
Race-day forecasts appear here within 15 days of the event, when data is available. Until then, explore the course and historical weather below.
Explore historical weatherWhat the weather may cost
RunWeather’s shared pace model estimates the effect of one weather hour at your goal effort. It is a planning preview, not a predicted finish time or a full course simulation.
Snapshot at 08:00 local using five-year ERA5 calendar-window mean. Route climbing, turns, shelter, fuelling, fitness, heat adaptation and wave timing are not modelled here. Rain is excluded because a probability is not a measured rain rate. Explore the pace model.
What the course asks of you
The 2026 marathon starts on Yonge Street near Elm Street and finishes on Bay Street north of Queen Street. The displayed route is a 2024 reference and does not show the updated start.
- Elevation
- 96 m
Hover or drag to explore. Use ← → when focused.
The first marathon start is 08:00, with later corral starts; use the time on your own instructions.
Check the current map because the organiser has changed the start location for 2026.
Look at conditions across your full race window before deciding on an opening pace.
What mornings like this have looked like
A useful range for planning Toronto Waterfront Marathon: hourly weather near Toronto for the same calendar date ±5 days in 2021–2025. These are city-grid samples, not past race editions or a forecast.
The five-year picture
- Air temperature
- 9°C
- Humidity
- 85%
- Wind
- 13 km/h
- Hours with rain
- 15%
Hover or drag to explore. Use ← → when focused. Shading: middle 80% of sampled temperatures.
The sampled air warms by about 5°C across four hours. Check your expected finish-hour forecast, not just the start.
Where the breeze came from
15 of 55 samples · 27%
Mean 12 km/h
The petals show how often the wind came from each direction at the sampled start hour. They do not predict the direction on race day.
A city-point wind rose cannot tell you which parts of the course will be sheltered or exposed. Use the live forecast and the organiser’s route map together.
Method: 55 ERA5 hourly samples at 08:00 local time, across 11 calendar days per year in 2021–2025. The sample uses the hour containing the advertised first start; waves may start later. Grid weather is modelled reanalysis, not an on-course station reading. Open-Meteo Historical Weather API . Snapshot generated 2026-09-29.
October conditions across all hours
October averages in Toronto, based on 2022–2024 ERA5 history. These are monthly conditions, not a race-day forecast.
Monthly, all-hours averages for Toronto, 2022–2024. Not past race-day measurements or a forecast. Rain is the share of historical hours with precipitation, not the chance of rain on race day. Source: Open-Meteo ERA5.
Explore running weather in TorontoFind your starting pace
Start with your goal. Leave room for the day.
Set a finish time to compare an even-pace baseline with a one-hour weather snapshot. Use the changing forecast and course notes to decide where to be more conservative.
The baseline ignores hills and stops. The weather preview models one selected hour.
Explore the heat pace calculator3:15:00 finish · 42.2 km
View even-pace checkpoints
| Distance | Elapsed time |
|---|---|
| 5.0 km | 0:23:06 |
| 10.0 km | 0:46:13 |
| 15.0 km | 1:09:19 |
| 20.0 km | 1:32:26 |
| 25.0 km | 1:55:32 |
| 30.0 km | 2:18:39 |
| 35.0 km | 2:41:45 |
| 40.0 km | 3:04:51 |
| 42.2 km · Finish | 3:15:00 |
Toronto Waterfront Marathon FAQs
When is the 2026 Toronto Waterfront Marathon?
Toronto Waterfront Marathon is scheduled for 18 October 2026. Confirm the latest details on the official event website before travelling.
Is the weather shown a forecast for Toronto Waterfront Marathon?
The race-day forecast panel uses provider data for the event date when available. The 2021–2025 ERA5 race-window sample describes nearby calendar dates, not held race editions or a prediction for race day. Monthly averages, when shown, cover all hours of the event month.
What is the historical race-window weather like for Toronto Waterfront Marathon?
At 08:00 local, the 2021–2025 ERA5 calendar-window sample near Toronto averages 9°C, 85% relative humidity and 13 km/h wind. The middle 80% of sampled start-hour temperatures is about 4–14°C. These are 55 city-grid samples from the event date ±5 days, not observations from held editions or a forecast.
Can the race-window history predict Toronto Waterfront Marathon weather?
No. It describes the same calendar window in 2021–2025. Use the live event-day forecast when available, check conditions through your own expected finish time, and follow the organiser for current start and course information.
Sources & race information
Weather-window data: Open-Meteo ERA5 Historical Weather API, sampled at the city grid for 2021–2025 and generated 2026-09-29. These calendar-window samples are not official race-day observations.
Guide reviewed . RunWeather is an independent guide, not the race organiser. Dates, waves and routes can change; the organiser’s latest instructions take priority. Course reference: 2024 reference course from RunWeather's curated catalogue. The next edition may differ; elevation is approximate.
Keep exploring
A race plan that goes with you.
Explore race planning and running forecasts in RunWeather. Keep your training and race-day preparation together.