Skip to main content
← All race guides
Half marathonRace-day forecast

2026 RACE BRIEFING

Manchester Half

Manchester, United Kingdom
GOAL FINISH Edit ↗1:40:00
WEATHER SNAPSHOT1:42:00

+2:00 versus your goal from a single 09:00 live city forecast snapshot.

Plan your October half marathon in Manchester with a reference route, historical conditions and an even-pace reference for your goal time.

Explore your pace plan
THE COURSE21.1 km
1×

Zoom to drag the route. Keyboard: + / −, arrows, Home to reset.

Manchester Half

1×

Zoom to drag the route. Keyboard: + / −, arrows, Home to reset.

Reference course outline. Check the organiser for the current route.

Start FinishReference route

2025 course reference. Check the organiser’s current course.

01 / THE CONDITIONS

Race-day weather

5 days to race day
14°C09:00 local · Manchester
Humidity98%
Wind / gusts4 km/hFrom SW · gusts 8 km/h
Dew point13°C
Conditions through the day
09:00
Air temperature
14°C
Dew point
13°C
Humidity
98%
Rain chance
2%
10°C13°C15°C18°C00:0008:0015:0023:00

Hover or drag to explore. Use ← → when focused.

Race day, hour by hour.

Swipe, drag or use the arrows. Select an hour for the full picture.

Forecast for 4 October 2026, Europe/London. Open-Meteo · refreshes approximately hourly. City-level conditions; exposure varies around the course. Check the organiser for your assigned start time.

02 / SAME EFFORT, DIFFERENT DAY

What the weather may cost

Forecast snapshot

RunWeather’s shared pace model estimates the effect of one weather hour at your goal effort. It is a planning preview, not a predicted finish time or a full course simulation.

Thermal load+2%Heat, cold and sun
Wind & comfort0%City-point wind; no route exposure
Weather model total+2%Applied to the goal-time snapshot above

Snapshot at 09:00 local using live city forecast. Route climbing, turns, shelter, fuelling, fitness, heat adaptation and wave timing are not modelled here. Rain is excluded because a probability is not a measured rain rate. Explore the pace model.

03 / KNOW THE ROUTE

What the course asks of you

Official race site

The Manchester Half is a 13.1-mile road event in the Old Trafford area. The displayed course is from 2025; check the 2026 participant guide for current start and finish details.

REFERENCE ELEVATION24–35 m
0.0 km
Elevation
30 m
22 m27 m32 m37 m0.0 km5.8 km12.2 km21.1 km

Hover or drag to explore. Use ← → when focused.

2025 reference course from RunWeather's curated catalogue. The next edition may differ; elevation is approximate. Elevations describe the reference route, not a confirmed profile for this edition.
01

Keep your warm-up close enough to your assigned start to avoid cooling down while waiting.

02

Use the race-hour rain and wind forecast when choosing kit.

03

Treat historical October averages as packing context, then make your final pacing decision from the forecast.

04 / THE RACE WINDOW

What mornings like this have looked like

ERA5 historical sample

A useful range for planning Manchester Half: hourly weather near Manchester for the same calendar date ±5 days in 2021–2025. These are city-grid samples, not past race editions or a forecast.

Typical start-hour air12°C10th–90th percentile 9°C–15°C
Dew point / humidity11°C91% relative humidity
Start-hour wind17 km/hDirection varies by day
Hours with rain27%Historical frequency at this hour
AIR THROUGH THE RUN

The five-year picture

12°C → 15°C by +4h
09:00
Air temperature
12°C
Humidity
91%
Wind
17 km/h
Hours with rain
27%
8°C12°C16°C20°CStartGoal finish09:0011:0013:0015:00

Hover or drag to explore. Use ← → when focused. Shading: middle 80% of sampled temperatures.

Five-year average Middle 80% of sampled hours

The sampled air warms by about 3°C across four hours. Check your expected finish-hour forecast, not just the start.

WIND CONTEXT

Where the breeze came from

NN: 2 of 55 sampled start hours; mean 15 km/hNENE: 4 of 55 sampled start hours; mean 18 km/hEE: 1 of 55 sampled start hours; mean 11 km/hSESE: 8 of 55 sampled start hours; mean 11 km/hSS: 14 of 55 sampled start hours; mean 17 km/hSWSW: 13 of 55 sampled start hours; mean 19 km/hWW: 12 of 55 sampled start hours; mean 18 km/hNWNW: 1 of 55 sampled start hours; mean 13 km/h
WIND FROMS

14 of 55 samples · 25%
Mean 17 km/h

The petals show how often the wind came from each direction at the sampled start hour. They do not predict the direction on race day.

A city-point wind rose cannot tell you which parts of the course will be sheltered or exposed. Use the live forecast and the organiser’s route map together.

Method: 55 ERA5 hourly samples at 09:00 local time, across 11 calendar days per year in 2021–2025. A 09:00 sample is used because the organiser has not confirmed a first start in this guide. Grid weather is modelled reanalysis, not an on-course station reading. Open-Meteo Historical Weather API . Snapshot generated 2026-09-29.

05 / THE BIGGER PICTURE

October conditions across all hours

Historical climate

October averages in Manchester, based on 2022–2024 ERA5 history. These are monthly conditions, not a race-day forecast.

Mean temperature12°C
Mean humidity83%
Mean wind14 km/h
Hours with rain27%

Monthly, all-hours averages for Manchester, 2022–2024. Not past race-day measurements or a forecast. Rain is the share of historical hours with precipitation, not the chance of rain on race day. Source: Open-Meteo ERA5.

Explore running weather in Manchester
06 / MAKE A PLAN

Find your starting pace

Start with your goal. Leave room for the day.

Set a finish time to compare an even-pace baseline with a one-hour weather snapshot. Use the changing forecast and course notes to decide where to be more conservative.

Goal finish time

Choose a popular time or set your own. Your pace and weather preview update as you edit.

The baseline ignores hills and stops. The weather preview models one selected hour.

Explore the heat pace calculator
YOUR GOAL PACE
4:44/km

1:40:00 finish · 21.1 km

Same-effort weather snapshot1:42:00+2:00 at 09:00 · forecast
View even-pace checkpoints
DistanceElapsed time
5.0 km0:23:42
10.0 km0:47:24
15.0 km1:11:06
20.0 km1:34:48
21.1 km · Finish1:40:00
07 / BEFORE THE START

Manchester Half FAQs

When is the 2026 Manchester Half?

Manchester Half is scheduled for 4 October 2026. Confirm the latest details on the official event website before travelling.

Is the weather shown a forecast for Manchester Half?

The race-day forecast panel uses provider data for the event date when available. The 2021–2025 ERA5 race-window sample describes nearby calendar dates, not held race editions or a prediction for race day. Monthly averages, when shown, cover all hours of the event month.

What is the historical race-window weather like for Manchester Half?

At 09:00 local, the 2021–2025 ERA5 calendar-window sample near Manchester averages 12°C, 91% relative humidity and 17 km/h wind. The middle 80% of sampled start-hour temperatures is about 9–15°C. These are 55 city-grid samples from the event date ±5 days, not observations from held editions or a forecast.

Can the race-window history predict Manchester Half weather?

No. It describes the same calendar window in 2021–2025. Use the live event-day forecast when available, check conditions through your own expected finish time, and follow the organiser for current start and course information.

Sources & race information

Weather-window data: Open-Meteo ERA5 Historical Weather API, sampled at the city grid for 2021–2025 and generated 2026-09-29. These calendar-window samples are not official race-day observations.

Guide reviewed . RunWeather is an independent guide, not the race organiser. Dates, waves and routes can change; the organiser’s latest instructions take priority. Course reference: 2025 reference course from RunWeather's curated catalogue. The next edition may differ; elevation is approximate.

ANOTHER START LINE

Keep exploring

YOUR NEXT STEP

A race plan that goes with you.

Explore race planning and running forecasts in RunWeather. Keep your training and race-day preparation together.

Get the app